West Virginians face a complicated economy with earnings that aren’t keeping pace with the cost of living, a shift in the state’s traditional job sectors and a persistently low workforce participation rate.
State and federal economic data indicate that a decline in demand for workers is expected to hit traditional industries like mining and retail the hardest within the next decade.
But some of the state’s largest employment sectors, including health care, are projected to add jobs through 2032, while others are expected to keep shedding them.
The state’s labor force participation rate, which continues to be the lowest in the nation, has barely budged over the past 20 years, and the overall size of the workforce has declined since the late 2000s.
Meanwhile, rising home costs and the price of goods have outpaced household income, squeezing the wallets of workers and their families, as post-pandemic inflation continues to impact prices.
Paychecks aren’t keeping up with cost of living
The average household is spending over $100 more per month on groceries than in January 2021, according to a report from the Joint Economic Committee. The costs of energy, housing and transportation have also risen.
Since 2017, home prices in West Virginia have increased far faster than median household income, according to Federal Reserve data.
The consumer price index has also steadily climbed, most notably following the 2020 COVID-19 pandemic; however, median household income has grown much more slowly, even falling during the early years of the pandemic.
When the cost of goods (the consumer price index), home prices and household incomes are adjusted to a common starting point, the gap becomes clearer. Because consumer prices, home prices and income are reported in different units, the data is indexed so each measure starts at the same point in 2017.
Economists often use indexed data like this to compare trends because it highlights how quickly costs and earnings are changing, allowing for a comparison of the change.
In West Virginia, these values highlight relative change over time, showing that housing costs and prices have risen at a much faster rate than incomes.
Where West Virginia’s job growth is expected to come from
West Virginia’s largest employment sectors — and where the majority of West Virginians are working — include health care, education, manufacturing and retail, according to the latest data available from Workforce West Virginia.
In 2024, the state’s largest private employers included WVU Medicine, Vandalia Health and Marshall Health, alongside Walmart and WVNH EMP, a nursing care facility company.
Jobs in health care and social assistance, which include child care employees and social workers, are projected to grow much faster than any other sector. Nearly 15,000 jobs are expected to be added by 2032.
West Virginia’s population is among the oldest in the country, with more than 20% of residents aged 65 or older. As the state’s population ages, demand for health care is expected to increase.
The West Virginia industries expected to shrink
While some of the state’s top employers are projected to add jobs over the next decade, retail and government jobs are projected to decrease.
Government jobs, which accounted for 77,000 West Virginia jobs in 2022, will shrink by about 1,700, which comes on the heels of the Trump Administration’s efforts to shrink the size of the federal government. Earlier this year, hundreds of West Virginians were laid off in Morgantown and Parkersburg, which are home to many federal offices.
The mining sector, which has been in decline for decades, including oil and gas extraction, is expected to lose the most, about 2,000 jobs.
West Virginia’s reliance on coal-heavy industries has waned over the past few decades as cheaper alternatives, such as natural gas, have gained popularity. And mining jobs have been slashed as mines close and federal trade policies impact trade prices.
While the demand for employment in various industries is shifting, one of the larger challenges for the state is how to grow the number of working-age people participating in the workforce.
More jobs aren’t the solution to more employment
The state’s labor force participation rate, the share of West Virginians actively working or seeking work, has remained between 53% and 55% for nearly two decades.
The rate has remained consistently low compared to other states. In 2023, for the first time since 1976, when economists began reporting the data, West Virginia briefly rose to the second-lowest ranking among all states except Mississippi. But the state has since dropped to last again, around 55%.
Some of the largest reasons for the state’s consistently low rate are a lack of child care and a skilled workforce.
But participation alone doesn’t tell the whole story.
The total size of West Virginia’s labor force has declined by nearly 30,000 workers since 2009, according to federal data from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.
That means there are fewer people available to fill open positions compared to a decade ago, a trend closely tied to the state’s population loss.